Hello, Summer! Nearly 43 Million Americans Will Kick off the Season with a Memorial Day Vacation

AAA forecasts the second-most holiday road trippers on record; INRIX predicts drive times could be more than three times longer than normal

News Topics, Travel
2019 Memorial Day Holiday Travel Forecast - Preview

According to the annual AAA Memorial Day Travel Forecast, nearly 43 million Americans will start their summers with a Memorial Day weekend getaway.  This long holiday weekend, marking the unofficial start of summer travel season, will see the second-highest travel volume on record since AAA began tracking holiday travel volumes dating back to 2000.  Overall, an additional 1.5 million more people will take to the nation’s roads, rails and runways compared with last year, a 3.6% increase nationwide.

“Following a long winter, Americans are excited to take advantage of a strong economy with a well-deserved vacation,” says Jim Lehman, president of AAA East Central.  “Summer vacations are the best way to create life-long memories with families and friends.” 

Although the national average price for gasoline is inching closer to the $3 per gallon mark, the vast majority of holiday travelers report that they will drive to their destinations.  For these motorists, INRIX, a global transportation analytics company, expects travel delays on major roads could be more than three times longer than normal during evening commutes.

Mid-Atlantic region Memorial Day Forecast Highlights:
*Region includes New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania.

Method of Travel

Total Travelers

% Increase from 2017

Automobile

4.5 million

3.6

Air travel

344,000

4.8

Other (bus, train, ship, etc.)

149,000

1.5

Region Total

5 million

3.6

 

East South Central region Memorial Day Forecast Highlights:
*Region includes Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, and Mississippi.

Method of Travel

Total Travelers

% Increase from 2017

Automobile

1.9 million

2.6

Air travel

197,000

6.6

Other (bus, train, ship, etc.)

84,000

2.9

Region Total

2.1 million

3.0

 

East North Central region Memorial Day Forecast Highlights:
*Region includes Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Method of Travel

Total Travelers

% Increase from 2017

Automobile

6.1 million

3.2

Air travel

373,000

3.7

Other (bus, train, ship, etc.)

285,000

2.7

Region Total

6.8 million

3.2

 

South Atlantic region Memorial Day Forecast Highlights:
*Region includes Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia.

Method of Travel

Total Travelers

% Increase from 2017

Automobile

7.2 million

3.7

Air travel

652,000

5.1

Other (bus, train, ship, etc.)

232,000

3.1

Region Total

8.1 million

3.8

Drivers beware: Worst times to hit the road
For the 37.6 million Americans traveling by automobile, INRIX, in collaboration with AAA, predicts drivers will experience the greatest amount of congestion on Thursday, May 23 and Friday, May 24 in the late afternoon as commuters leave work early and mix with holiday travelers.  Several major U.S. metros could experience double the travel times compared to a normal trip, while New Yorkers and Washington, D.C., could see three times the delay. 

Higher gas prices won’t keep holiday travelers home
Gas prices have increased by more than 30 cents in the last two months with the national average approaching $3 per gallon ($2.86 today) which is relatively on par with prices this time last year ($2.89).  However, 88% of travelers will choose to drive to their Memorial Day destinations this year, the most on record.  AAA has found that when gas prices are higher, travelers may shorten the distance of a road trip, eat out less or look for free activities.   Overall, prices are very similar to this time last year and, like then, travelers aren’t letting that deter them from taking summer road trips. 

Travelers to see relief in lower hotel and car rental costs
While road trippers are paying more to fill up their vehicles at the gas pump, some of that additional expense can be made up with lower prices on car rentals and hotels this Memorial Day.  According to AAA’s Leisure Travel Index, car rental prices have declined 7% nationally compared with last year, with an average daily rate of $55.  Mid-range hotels are between 2% and 3% cheaper this year, with an average nightly rate of $146 and $183, respectively, for AAA Two and Three Diamond Rated properties.  

Top Memorial Day travel destinations
Orlando, New York City and Las Vegas can expect an influx of travelers for the holiday.  These are the top destinations in this region this Memorial Day weekend, based on advance AAA Travel bookings:

  1. Orlando, Florida
  2. Las Vegas, Nevada
  3. New York City
  4. South Carolina’s Beaches
  5. Tampa, Florida
  6. Miami, Florida
  7. Chicago, Illinois
  8. Niagara Falls
  9. Virginia Beach
  10. Toronto, Ontario 

According to Hertz, a more than 40-year AAA partner, the busiest airport pick-up locations for travelers renting a car this Memorial Day are expected to be Orlando (MCO), Los Angeles (LAX), Denver (DEN), Las Vegas (LAS), and San Francisco (SFO).  The busiest day for rental pick-ups is expected to be Friday, May 24, with an average rental length of nearly five days, as travelers look to take advantage of the long holiday weekend. 

AAA to rescue more than 353,000 motorists
AAA expects to be called on to rescue more than 353,000 motorists at the roadside this Memorial Day weekend. Dead batteries, flat tires and lockouts will be the leading reasons AAA members will experience car trouble.  

AAA recommends motorist take their vehicles to a trusted repair facility to perform any needed maintenance before heading out on a road trip.  Be prepared for emergencies with a mobile phone and car charger, a flashlight with extra batteries, a first-aid kit, a basic toolkit, and drinking water and snacks for all passengers. 

Survey Methodology: 
AAA’s projections are based on economic forecasting and research by IHS Markit, a London-based business information provider.  For the purposes of this forecast, the Memorial Day holiday travel period is defined as the five-day period from Thursday, May 23 to Monday, May 27.  In cooperation with AAA, IHS Markit developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes, using macroeconomic drivers such as employment; output; household net worth; asset prices including stock indices; interest rates; housing market indicators and variables related to travel and tourism, including prices of gasoline, airline travel and hotel stays.  The complete AAA/IHS Markit 2019 Memorial Day holiday travel forecast is available here

About INRIX:
INRIX is the global leader in connected car services and transportation analytics.  Leveraging big data and the cloud, INRIX delivers comprehensive services and solutions to help move people, cities and businesses forward.  INRIX’s partners are automakers, governments, mobile operators, developers, advertisers, as well as enterprises large and small.